Wyoming Fire Danger Is Lowered – BUT!

Drought conditions are expected to persist across the vast majority of Wyoming through July 2026, following one of the driest winters and springs on record. Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought covers large portions of the state, resulting in historically low mountain snowpacks, diminished streamflow, and high wildfire risks, according to the National Weather Service.

“Fire danger in the higher elevations of Idaho and Wyoming dropped significantly in late June due to wetting rain, colder temperatures, and high-elevation snowfall, which will take a couple of weeks to return to normal levels,” a NIFC spokesperson said in the report.

There is a good chance of increased thunderstorms in the afternoon beginning next week, July 12th and beyond. Forecasters are expressing confidence that some monsoonal moisture will be coming our way along with higher temperatures. We will have to take the good with the bad as the heat turns that moisture into thunderstorms.

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Fire weather meteorologists also use the phrase “mixture of wet and dry” to describe thunderstorms which produce a diverse rainfall pattern. This means that the main rain shaft accompanying the thunderstorm produces wetting rain, but the footprint of this wetting rain is small, while much lighter amounts are found around the periphery of the cell. Lightning can strike outside of the wetting rain footprint. (National Weather Service.)

Drouht dot Gov July 2026

Let's start with the obvious: it has been way too dry.

GOOD NEWS: The first week after the 4th of July, some of our region will get some rain.

BAD NEWS: Next weekend will be really hot and dry.

GOOD NEWS: That heat and dryness over the weekend is the start of a high-pressure system that is moving towards us. It is bringing moisture. That moisture with the heat means rain for next week.

BAD NEWS: Next week is going to be really hot.

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GOOD NEWS: That heat, along with the moisture that the high-pressure system is pulling in, will mean even more rain.

According to regional weatherman Don Day's forecast, which you can watch at this link, we have to have the high-pressure system along with the heat to make the rain. Sorry, we can't have cool rain to make this happen.

The North American Monsoon System (NAMS), which is also referred to as the Southwest Monsoon. This is what we hope to be taking advantage of. While precipitation increases is associated with the monsoon are generally noted in July, and development of the system takes place during May and June. A high-pressure system over the central United States rotates clockwise and pulls that moisture up.

Beautiful funny toddler with umbrella playing in the rain

Despite the good news / bad news, it is never a good idea to look at the app on your cell phone, or any online weather model, and decide that this is what the weather is going to be, exactly.  Those programs are far from perfect.

But what we can see is a change in the weather pattern that is setting us up for what we hope is a wet weather change.

Having said that - let's never believe anything until it happens. Hopeful signs are good, but we will have to wait until this plays out in the real world.