What’s Up With Egypt? Mubarak is Not Going Away!

As things heat up even more in Egypt and as the military has been brought into the picture, several things should be made perfectly clear.

Egypt has the power to put down the protests and restore order. The question is how many people will die in the process.
There are about 18 million people in Cairo, about 78 million in the entire country. Even if this becomes a more popular uprising, the only way to topple Mubarak is if the military joins the cause.

The many and various extremist groups are more organized than the students who have been the face of this uprising. The extremists outnumber and out-organize the students. Extremists and students might join forces but they have nothing in common except their disdain for Mubarak.

Do not hope for major change in Egypt.

After the Government puts down the unrest and things become calmer - which will happen, Mubarak will institute changes. He will fire his interior minister, the person responsible for the police. He may free some long time prisoners. These are some of the demands of the student protesters. He may also call for new parliamentary elections even though the last ones were a mere two months ago.

Mubarak is not going to step down and disappear. He will seek revenge against both those who stood silent and those who participated in the uprising.

For many years Mubarak has functioned as a benevolent dictator, but he is and always will be a dictator. He is and always will be a thug.

Replacing Mubarak in Egypt is not necessarily the best option. Yes we embrace democracy and the voice of the people and we also embrace the right of the people to choose even a bad leader.
One of the most obvious results of ousting Mubarak would be replacing him with Islamic leadership. Not Islamic leadership like in Iran, Islamic leadership like Hamas.

The potential for war with Israel would increase dramatically. Stability in Jordan would teeter and possibly fall. Anyone who enters the leadership position instead of Mubarak will be a sponsor of Hamas in their attack against Israel. A war or a near war situation could cost the lives of tens of thousands of Egyptians and ruin entire regional and world economies.

Mubarak is a thug. But a quick revolt and casting him aside could endanger the world. Mubarak needs to be pressured to modify and liberalize and transition into better forms of leadership.
An overthrow of Mubarak is not in the best interests of the United States or of the West. Not in the long term and not in the short term.

That might sound anti-democratic, but it is not. It is a political, economic and historically proven reality.

Updated 1/31/2011

Another crisis is emerging. More unrest is poised to overtake Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other parts of the Middle East.

The price of food is skyrocketing. When the price of food goes up - local unrest increases.
Wheat futures have reached a 29 month high. The price of gasoline is rising and rising.

To confront this new crisis, Jordan's King Abdullah is reinstituting subsidies on foods, especially on staples. Jordan asked for and received $100 million in help from the US to offset the cost of the subsidies.

And on Sunday, Mubarak, like Jordan's king, ordered that food prices be slashed to ease the burden on the masses and to hopefully quell anger over food prices.

This is a big crisis. It doesn't get worse than food and gas shortages. More unrest is brewing.