Micah Halpern has been Thinking About Egypt

Micah Halpern has been our middle eastern analyst on KGAB since September 11, 2001. He spends several months a year in the middle east and has extensive contacts across the area. He has authored two books on terrorism, What You Need to Know About Terror and his latest, Thugs. Hear his audio blog weekedays at 6:33 in The Morning Zone.

Egypt Lost $310 Mil/Day

By Micah Halpern

$310,000,000.

The unrest in Egypt is costing $310 million per day in revenue. That does not take into account the cost of destruction or the cost of the police or the military.

$3.1 billion of revenue has been lost since the rioting began.

A conservative estimate puts that $3.1 billion at 5% of Egypt's GDP. The number will no doubt increase - it could easily hit 20%.

The industry most horribly hit is tourism and tourism is one of Egypt's biggest industries. Not only have tourists fled the country during the events of the past 10 days, but future trips have been cancelled. It will take months and years to rebuild the tourism industry.

No matter who ultimately holds the reins of power, it will be very difficult convincing foreigners that Egypt is a safe place to visit and vacation.

No matter who holds the reins of power, rebuilding Egypt will be a long and arduous task.

Blame Israel for Egypt

By Micah Halpern

Friday February 4, 2011

I was astonished when I read the observation of Salam Fayyad the Prime Minster of the Palestinian Authority on the reasons for the unrest in Egypt.

In a press conference with the French PM, Fayyad said that part of the reason for the unrest in Egypt is to be blamed on the inability of the Israelis and the Palestinians to come to an agreement.

To what does this non-sequitur connect? It clearly connects to the desire of Palestinian leadership to link all problems in the Middle East to Israel. Israel is the primary or secondary cause of everything. If the region were to rid itself of Israel, the problems would all fade away.

Fayyad is no fool. He has a Ph.D. from U of T in Austin and was a major player in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He probably does not believe a word of what he said, but he knows that others will be persuaded by what he said. Comments like the one Fayyad just made unite the Arab masses against a common enemy. Fayyad carried out a classic practice in populism and in motivating the masses.

If anything, the events in Egypt show that Israel and the Palestinians are a minor issue in the Middle East. The events in Egypt clearly illustrate that Palestinians in Israel and in the Palestinian Authority live much better lives than their average Arab neighbors.

For Palestinian leadership, it's all about spin.

Don't Rush to Elections in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 3, 2011

The United States is hoping for quick elections in Egypt.
P.J. Crowley, the State Department spokesman, said yesterday that the US wants to see free, fair and credible elections. "The sooner that can happen, the better."

This is a big mistake. Rushing to elections will almost certainly guarantee the rise of extremists.

All non-democratic forces should be forbidden from participating systems. Non-democratic parties must not be permitted to stand for election.

Many of the parties in Egypt, but most notably the Muslim Brotherhood which is the best organized opposition party, is blatantly anti-democratic.

Many countries in the world forbid anti-democratic parties because extremism threatens the democratic backbone of a society and, if successful, eliminates democracy. That is what happened in the PA with Hamas and it is what happened with Hitler's rise to power.
Hitler was elected to power democratically and then dismantled the democracy that put him in power,

Fledgling democracies must protect themselves from anti-democratic forces.

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Categories: Commentary